Tesla has to announce the preliminary decision for the June in the coming days. After the March disillusioned shipments fell from almost 91,000 vehicles in the December quarter to just over 63,000 three months later, the company rose to 90,000 to 100,000 sold in the June quarter.
Tesla can easily be sold several vehicle records in the June quarter as it has over 10,000 in transit at the end of March quarter and some buyers may have pulled last month’s trigger. Waiting until July or August due to semi-federal tax credit on July 1 I am aware that such sales increase takes a lot of effort, but since the company did so in the December quarter it has the ability to do so again.
Expect to be lower than the guide
From Oppenheimer notes by Colin Rusch he reported that, “the company was distributed internally collected consensus, under the FactSet consensus. Tesla’s analysis showed 84,800 transmission in the quarter.
Update to the following paragraph after talking to Tesla.
Tesla compiled predictions from about 20 party sales analysts. 6 to 8 containing FactSet. Although many analysts’ estimates are published publicly, which should not be found by Internet search. Tesla provides numbers and does not add any additional information about them.
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It is interesting that Tesla issued a consensus analysis that may be unusual because I did not find it on the website of the Edgar SEC, Tesla investor relations website or company blog.
It looks like the company has been selected given important information since the lower projections can be interpreted as Tesla tries to lower expectations to help stocks when it announces initial results.
I have sent an email to the media relations department and the company’s investors to get clarity on what has been prepared and will update this article if I receive a reply.
How many sales were in June due to a drop in transit inventory?
I believe that Tesla can defeat expectations well. However, one of the reasons may be due to reduced car in transit at the end of the quarter. Out of March the company had about 10,600 in transit vs. more than 2,900 at the end of December (there were over 11,800 at the start of the quarter) when another major attraction took place to get the car delivered.
Although I did not expect the transit number to fall to December because of the large number being sent overseas, by reducing the amount will add 5,000 cars to the June quarter results.
Tesla Elon Musk
Chief Executive Officer of Tesla Elon Musk. (Photo AP / Noah Berger) PRESS ASSOCIATION
Demand for S & X Model will return to 100,000 per year?
In the Mac quarter conference called Elon Musk, “returning to 100,000 annually an annual demand for S and X is what we expect.” That’s the best for my knowledge. We do not have crystal balls, but that’s probably the best guess. ”
This was after Tesla sold only 12,091 in the quarter, a big drop from 27,607 in the December quarter (down 56%) and from 21,815 in March 2018 (down 45%).
Because part of the lower revenue will be due to federal tax credits cut from $ 7,500 to $ 3,750 on January 1 and attracting sales into December, it will be critical for Tesla and investors to see S and X return paths. Especially since the Federal tax credits are split twice starting from July 1 to $ 1,875.
All this moving part means that it can take at least one or two quarters or even a year to get a real reading on the request of Model S and X. If Jun’s decision is also assisted by the attraction, then there may be other declines in the September quarter.
And the cycle can repeat again in the quarter of December; The last buyer will get any Federal tax credits to buy Tesla.